The Muslim population in the United Kingdom has grown substantially over the past two decades, making it one of the most significant demographic shifts in the country’s modern history. According to the most recent official data, approximately 4 million Muslims now live across the UK, representing roughly 6% of the total population. This figure, drawn from the 2021 Census for England, Wales, and Northern Ireland, and the 2022 Census for Scotland, provides the clearest picture yet of the size and distribution of British Muslim communities.
What Is the Current Muslim Population in the UK?
3.9 million (England & Wales) / ~4 million UK total
Source: ONS Census 2021, MCB
6.5% (England & Wales) / ~6% UK
Source: ONS Census 2021
~5.6 million (based on 3.2% annual growth trend)
Source: Various demographic studies
~8.2 million (if trend continues), ~10-15% of UK population
Source: Pew Research, ONS projections
The 2021 Census for England and Wales recorded 3,868,133 Muslims, or 6.5% of the population. This represents an increase of about 1.16 million from the 2.71 million (4.9%) recorded in 2011, according to the Office for National Statistics. Muslims accounted for roughly one-third of all population growth in England and Wales over that decade.
- The Muslim population in the UK has grown from 1.5 million (2.7%) in 2001 to 3.9 million (6.5%) in 2021, driven largely by higher birth rates and immigration.
- Around 6% of Muslims in England and Wales are White British (200k-250k), highlighting diversity within the community.
- Scotland’s Muslim population is approximately 77,000 (1.4% of Scottish population) per 2011 census; 2022 census data is pending.
- Future projections vary: the Muslim population could reach 8-10 million by 2050, representing 10-15% of the UK, but figures depend on migration and fertility trends.
- Over 70% of UK Muslims live in England (London, Birmingham, Manchester, Bradford), with smaller communities in Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland.
| Fact | Detail | Source |
|---|---|---|
| UK total population (2021) | 67 million (approx.) | ONS |
| Muslims in England & Wales (2021) | 3,868,133 (6.5%) | ONS Census |
| Muslims in Scotland (2011) | 76,737 (1.4%) | Scotland Census |
| Muslims in Northern Ireland (2021) | approx. 10,000 (0.5%) | NISRA |
| Muslims in UK total (2021 est.) | ~4 million (6% of UK) | MCB / ONS |
| Projected Muslims in UK (2030) | ~5.6 million (8% of UK) | Pew Research |
| Projected Muslims in UK (2050) | ~8.2 million (11% of UK) | Pew Research |
Muslim population in UK 2023 (actual census data)
The most reliable current figure remains the 2021 Census result for England and Wales, as no national census has been conducted since. The Muslim Council of Britain published an analysis in 2022 noting that the population of England and Wales stands at 59.60 million, with the Muslim population at 3.87 million, or 6.5% of the total. For the UK as a whole, the MCB’s 2025 summary puts the figure at about 4 million, or around 6% of the approximately 67 million UK population.
How many Muslims in UK percentage (relative to total population)
The Muslim share of the UK population — roughly 6% — has more than doubled since 2001, when it stood at 2.7%. This rise is part of a broader shift in religious composition: the Christian population fell from 59% to 46% between 2011 and 2021, while those reporting no religion rose from 25.2% to 37.2%, according to ONS data.
How Will the Muslim Population in the UK Grow by 2025, 2030, and 2050?
How many Muslims in UK 2025 (near-term forecast)
No official census has been conducted for 2025. The most commonly cited estimate of around 4.2 million is based on extrapolation from the 2021 census, applying average annual growth rates. This figure is not an official statistic and should be treated as a demographic estimate. The Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency provides the most recent official data for that region, which shows a Muslim population of about 10,000 (0.5%) in 2021.
How many Muslims in UK 2026 (continuation of trend)
Projections for 2026 are similarly based on trend analysis rather than new official data. Using the same growth assumptions that produced the 2021-2024 trajectory, estimates suggest the Muslim population could reach approximately 4.4 million by 2026. These figures carry moderate uncertainty because they assume continuity in fertility rates, migration patterns, and religious identification — all of which can change.
Muslim population in UK 2030 (mid-term projection)
Mid-range projections from sources including Pew Research Center suggest the Muslim population could reach around 5.6 million by 2030, representing roughly 8% of the UK population. These projections are scenario-based and depend on assumptions about fertility rates, net migration, and conversion. The MCB’s analysis of the younger age structure — a median age of 29 for Muslims versus about 44 for the general population — adds weight to the expectation of continued growth, as a larger share of Muslims are entering prime childbearing years.
Long-range population forecasts are inherently uncertain. Figures for 2030 and 2050 are not predictions but projections based on specific assumptions about fertility, mortality, and migration. Small changes in any of these factors can produce significantly different outcomes. No single authoritative source publishes fixed projections for the UK Muslim population; figures from Pew and others are estimates that vary across scenarios.
Muslim population in UK 2050 (long-term demographic outlook)
Pew Research Center’s high scenario projects that Muslims could make up approximately 11-13% of the UK population by 2050, or about 8.2 million people. This is based on continued higher fertility rates (averaging 2.9 children per Muslim woman compared to 1.7 national average) and ongoing migration. Lower-growth scenarios produce smaller figures, and the actual outcome will depend on factors that cannot be predicted with certainty, including policy changes, economic conditions, and social trends.
The wide range in 2050 projections — from roughly 6 million to over 10 million in some studies — reflects genuine uncertainty about future trends. Key variables include: whether fertility rates converge toward the national average, the pace and composition of immigration, rates of religious disaffiliation among younger generations, and potential changes in how religion is reported in future censuses.
How Many Muslims Live in Scotland Compared to Other UK Nations?
How many Muslims in Scotland (census data and percentage)
The most recent official figure for Scotland comes from the 2011 Census, which recorded 76,737 Muslims, or 1.4% of the Scottish population. The 2022 Census results for religion are expected to be published in 2025, which will provide an updated figure. The MCB’s 2025 summary estimates Scotland’s current Muslim share at about 2.2%, but this is a synthesis figure rather than an official count.
The picture across the UK’s four nations shows significant variation:
- England: approximately 6.7% Muslim (2021 census), with about 3.8 million Muslims
- Wales: approximately 2.2% Muslim (2021 census), with about 66,000 Muslims
- Scotland: approximately 2.2% Muslim (MCB estimate, pending 2022 census results)
- Northern Ireland: approximately 0.5-0.6% Muslim (2021 census), with about 10,000 Muslims
London alone holds approximately 1.2 million Muslims, or 15% of the city’s population — making Islam the second most common religion in the capital. Other major concentrations include Birmingham (341,811 Muslims, roughly 27%), Bradford (166,846), Tower Hamlets (123,912), Manchester (122,962), and Newham (122,146). These figures come from the ONS and MCB analyses of the 2021 census.
Timeline of Muslim Population Growth in the UK
- 2001 — Population: 1.5 million (2.7%). First major census of the 21st century establishes baseline.
- 2011 — Population: 2.7 million (4.8% in England & Wales). Census shows 80% growth from 2001.
- 2021 — Population: 3.9 million (6.5% in England & Wales). Latest census; projection data released.
- 2023-2024 (est.) — Population: ~4.2 million (~6.5%). Mid-decade estimate based on natural growth.
- 2030 (proj.) — Population: ~5.6 million (~8%). Pew Research medium projection.
- 2050 (proj.) — Population: ~8.2 million (~11-13%). Pew Research high scenario; varies by migration.
What Is Certain and What Remains Uncertain About UK Muslim Population Figures?
| Established Information | Information That Remains Unclear |
|---|---|
| The 2021 census figure of 3.9 million Muslims in England & Wales is definitive. | Projections for 2025 and 2026 are based on linear extrapolation from the 2021 census, not officially published. |
| The UK total is approximately 4 million (including Scotland and NI). | Population breakdowns for Scotland and Northern Ireland are based on older censuses (2011, 2021 partially). |
| The Muslim population increased by about 1.16 million between 2011 and 2021. | Long-term projections (2030, 2050) rely on assumptions about fertility rates, net migration, and conversion rates — all subject to change. |
Why Is the Muslim Population Growing? Understanding the Demographic Drivers
The growth of the UK’s Muslim population is driven primarily by two factors: a higher birth rate and net immigration. The average fertility rate among Muslim women is about 2.9 children, compared to the national average of 1.7, according to demographic analyses. This, combined with a much younger age profile — the median age of Muslims in the UK is 29, while the national median is around 40 to 44 — creates what demographers call “population momentum.” Even if fertility rates converge over time, the large cohort of young Muslims entering adulthood ensures continued growth for decades.
The geographic concentration in urban areas — particularly London, Birmingham, Bradford, and Manchester — also influences the community’s demographic footprint. In London, where Muslims make up 15% of the population, the community is large enough to sustain its own cultural, religious, and economic institutions, which in turn can attract further migration and settlement. This pattern is not unique to Muslims but reflects broader trends in UK migration and urban development.
Muslims are now the second-largest religious group in England and Wales, after Christians (46%), and followed by Hindus (1.7%). The Scottish census results for religion, expected in 2025, will provide a more complete picture of the national distribution.
Key Sources and What They Say About the UK Muslim Population
“The population of England & Wales stands at 59.60 million; the Muslim population is 3.87 million, or 6.5% of the total.”
— Muslim Council of Britain (mcb.org.uk), 2022
“Census 2021 data shows that 1,907,371 females reported their religion as Muslim and 1,960,762 males in England and Wales.”
— Office for National Statistics (ons.gov.uk), 2025 FOI response
“The 2021 census
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Thomas WhitmoreStaff WriterThomas Whitmore is Politics & Public Affairs Editor at BritainNow.uk, covering Westminster, policy and government affairs.
